Understanding uncertainty of model-reanalysis soil moisture within Greater Horn of Africa (1982–2014)

• Evaluated uncertainty in model soil moisture using TCH and Taylor diagrams over GHA. High levels associated with high rainfall complex terrain. Magnitude of spatial variability contributed higher than patterns. Reanalysis products (ERA5 MERRA2) have lowest uncertainties. Lack situ Greater Horn Africa (GHA) has inhibited evaluation suitability land surface (LSM) and/or satellite-derived the region. This led to a low utilization LSM-derived agricultural drought-related studies as reflected by lower number based despite region being dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. study evaluated from following LSM; MERRA-2, ERA5, GLDAS (NOAH, CLM, VIC), FLDAS NOAH, CPC. Generalized three-cornered hat analysis this suite showed magnitudes uncertainties areas while were areas. Further, Ethiopian highlands topographical characteristics had almost twice magnitude compared relatively flat East (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania). MERRA2 ERA5 consistently CPC uncertainty. The are attributed quality forcing precipitation, difference physical dynamics, changes. From diagram analyses, (amplitudes) patterns (phase). Finally, interannual analyses across considered during wet season dry Ethiopia Sudan, south Africa, Eastern Somalia reverse. results important they contribute knowledge major